[Culturechat] Swiss Analysis of Iraq & Peak World Oil Production

Mon, 31 May 2004 22:21:04 EDT

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Speaking as a West Texas oilman, I think that we have a lot to learn from the 
Europeans.   

We need a higher gasoline tax, and I would be in favor of an escalating tax 
on larger vehicles--a tax that doubles for every 1,000 pound increase in curb 
weight.    And we desperately need to start pushing an aggressive wind power 
program.   We need to start moving toward much smaller homes, and 
townhomes/apartments that are in close proximity to where we work, so that we can, as much 
as possible, walk to work, or take mass transit.    

There is probably a 50% chance of serious blackouts this summer on the 
coasts.   Next summer, we are probably looking at a 90%+ chance of blackouts.    
Northeastern utilities in the U.S. have already said that they can't guarantee 
natural gas supplies beyond the 2004/2005 winter.   

In the U.S., each person uses the energy equivalent of an eight ounce cup of 
oil every 12 minutes, or about seven gallons of oil equivalent per day per 
person.    If, as I believe, we are approaching the peak of world oil production, 
the resentment that some people around the world have shown the U.S. because 
of Iraq is NOTHING compared to what will come, when we try to keep using the 
same amount of energy, in a world of declining energy supplies.   

If you want to read the worst case, go to www.dieoff.org and click on energy 
synopsis.   

J. Brown

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<HTML><FONT FACE=3Darial,helvetica><HTML><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Gen=
eva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"2">Speaking as a West Texas oilman, I thin=
k that we have a lot to learn from the Europeans.&nbsp;  <BR>
<BR>
We need a higher gasoline tax, and I would be in favor of an escalating tax=20=
on larger vehicles--a tax that doubles for every 1,000 pound increase in cur=
b weight.&nbsp;&nbsp;  And we desperately need to start pushing an aggressiv=
e wind power program.&nbsp;  We need to start moving toward much smaller hom=
es, and townhomes/apartments that are in close proximity to where we work, s=
o that we can, as much as possible, walk to work, or take mass transit.&nbsp=
;&nbsp;  <BR>
<BR>
There is probably a 50% chance of serious blackouts this summer on the coast=
s.&nbsp;  Next summer, we are probably looking at a 90%+ chance of blackouts=
.&nbsp;&nbsp;  Northeastern utilities in the U.S. have already said that the=
y can't guarantee natural gas supplies beyond the 2004/2005 winter.&nbsp;  <=
BR>
<BR>
In the U.S., each person uses the energy equivalent of an eight ounce cup of=
 oil every 12 minutes, or about seven gallons of oil equivalent per day per=20=
person.&nbsp;&nbsp;  If, as I believe, we are approaching the peak of world=20=
oil production, the resentment that some people around the world have shown=20=
the U.S. because of Iraq is NOTHING compared to what will come, when we try=20=
to keep using the same amount of energy, in a world of declining energy supp=
lies.&nbsp;  <BR>
<BR>
If you want to read the worst case, go to www.dieoff.org and click on energy=
 synopsis.&nbsp;  <BR>
<BR>
J. Brown<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"=
2"></FONT></HTML>
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