[Culturechat] What does Jim Kunstler know?
WesTexas@aol.com
WesTexas@aol.com
Thu, 30 Dec 2004 11:56:19 EST
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If I could dictate policy changes, I would mandate much greater fuel taxes,=20
with what Amory Lovins calls a "freebate" program, where buyers of large=20
vehicles pay a fee that is transferred, dollar for dollar, to buyers of smal=
ler,=20
more fuel efficient vehicles. However, that requires a public acknowledgm=
ent=20
of the reality of resource depletion and an acknowledgment that an infinite=20
compound growth of the economy is a physical impossibility. =20
Therefore, I personally don't expect to see any real policy changes until we=
=20
see gas lines and/or rolling blackouts. =20
The suburban way of life makes some sense, as long as we have cheap energy.=20=
=20
In an post Peak Oil world, it makes no sense. In addition, there is no=20
way of getting around the fact that we are the world champion energy hogs, u=
sing=20
any standard of measurement. Again, during a period of cheap and abundant=20
energy, there are no immediate negative consequences (other than the=20
environmental aspect) to our profligate energy use. However, in a post Pea=
k Oil world,=20
one can make a pretty good case that our continued high energy use will=20
literally cause people in other parts of the world to start dying. =20
When Krakatoa blew up in the 19th Century, approximately 36,000 people died,=
=20
primarily because of the tsunamis. Because of much greater population in=
=20
the area, I wouldn't be surprised to see as many as 360,000 people ultimatel=
y=20
die (from all causes) as a result of the Indian Ocean tsunamis (my wife and=20=
I=20
are setting up a monthly donation program to relief organizations). =20
However, to put this disaster in perspective, a petroleum engineer named=20
Richard Duncan has done some calculations on the effect of Peak Oil on world=
=20
population. Currently, we are seeing a net increase of 214,000 people per=
day=20
worldwide--about 1.5 million per week. Assuming that we are at Peak Oil,=
=20
Duncan estimates that we will see a net dieoff of 300,000 people per day bet=
ween=20
2008 and 2030. =20
My advice to friends and family is to start planning for a far simpler life=20
and to start taking a very hard look at starting an organic farm or garden.=20=
=20
For every calorie of food we consume, we consume 10 calories of fossil fuels=
=20
used in food production. You begin to see where Duncan is coming from if=20=
we=20
are faced with an ongoing decline in oil production--thus the importance of=20
organic farming. =20
If you missed it, following is a table showing total energy usage per capita=
=20
for various countries and regions:
Following are some total energy consumption numbers (from all energy=20
sources), expressed in Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) per person, for selec=
ted areas=20
(from Simmons & Company, from a couple of years ago):
*Growing Fast
U.S.=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0 64.3 BOE/capita=A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0=20=
=A0=A0=A0=A0
Europe=A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 50.9
Japan =A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 32.8
China* =A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 5.3
India* =A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 2.5
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<HTML><FONT FACE=3Darial,helvetica><HTML><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Gen=
eva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"2">If I could dictate policy changes, I wo=
uld mandate much greater fuel taxes, with what Amory Lovins calls a "freebat=
e" program, where buyers of large vehicles pay a fee that is transferred, do=
llar for dollar, to buyers of smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. &n=
bsp; However, that requires a public acknowledgment of the reality of resou=
rce depletion and an acknowledgment that an infinite compound growth of the=20=
economy is a physical impossibility. <BR>
<BR>
Therefore, I personally don't expect to see any real policy changes until we=
see gas lines and/or rolling blackouts. <BR>
<BR>
The suburban way of life makes some sense, as long as we have cheap energy.&=
nbsp; In an post Peak Oil world, it makes no sense. In a=
ddition, there is no way of getting around the fact that we are the world ch=
ampion energy hogs, using any standard of measurement. Again, during=20=
a period of cheap and abundant energy, there are no immediate negative conse=
quences (other than the environmental aspect) to our profligate energy use.&=
nbsp; However, in a post Peak Oil world, one can make a pretty good case th=
at our continued high energy use will literally cause people in other parts=20=
of the world to start dying. <BR>
<BR>
When Krakatoa blew up in the 19th Century, approximately 36,000 people died,=
primarily because of the tsunamis. Because of much great=
er population in the area, I wouldn't be surprised to see as many as 360,000=
people ultimately die (from all causes) as a result of the Indian Ocean tsu=
namis (my wife and I are setting up a monthly donation program to relief org=
anizations). <BR>
<BR>
However, to put this disaster in perspective, a petroleum engineer named Ric=
hard Duncan has done some calculations on the effect of Peak Oil on world po=
pulation. Currently, we are seeing a net increase of 214,000 pe=
ople per day worldwide--about 1.5 million per week. Assum=
ing that we are at Peak Oil, Duncan estimates that we will see a net dieoff=20=
of 300,000 people per day between 2008 and 2030. <BR>
<BR>
My advice to friends and family is to start planning for a far simpler life=20=
and to start taking a very hard look at starting an organic farm or garden.&=
nbsp; For every calorie of food we consume, we consume 10 calor=
ies of fossil fuels used in food production. You begin to see w=
here Duncan is coming from if we are faced with an ongoing decline in oil pr=
oduction--thus the importance of organic farming. <BR>
<BR>
If you missed it, following is a table showing total energy usage per capita=
for various countries and regions:<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"=
2">Following are some total energy consumption numbers (from all energy sour=
ces), expressed in Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) per person, for selected=20=
areas (from Simmons & Company, from a couple of years ago):<BR>
<BR>
*Growing Fast<BR>
<BR>
U.S.=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0 64.3 BOE/capita=A0=
=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0<BR>
<BR>
Europe=A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 50.9<BR>
<BR>
Japan =A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 32.8<BR>
<BR>
China* =A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 5.3<BR>
<BR>
India* =A0=A0=A0=A0 =A0=A0=A0=A0 2.5</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"G=
eneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"2"></FONT></HTML>
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