[Culturechat] What does Jim Kunstler know?
Gerald J. Clancy, Jr.
jclancy@billtrak.com
Wed, 29 Dec 2004 20:25:13 -0500
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But all this assumes that there will be no supplement or alternative to oil
as the primary energy source (which, in Vegas' case, may actually be
hydro). If you also throw in LA (dependent upon that very same Colorado
water), Phoenix and Tucson, you have what, some 15 million or so folks that
need energy and since we're not about to migrate 15 million folks, somehow,
some way they will get that energy. We may not know exactly how right now
but, trust me, they will get it. Actually, as you hint, water, not oil, may
be their biggest problem. But at some point desalinization and pumping
begins to make economic sense, as it does today in parts of the Middle
East. Look at the CAP project of a couple of decades ago. It's all
economics. Cheap? Maybe not, but whatever it takes it will happen.
Do I agree that building cities in the middle of deserts is idiotic? You
bet. But they're already there and they're not going away.
But I've probably sailed Lake Mead for the last time.
At 06:51 PM 12/29/2004, WesTexas@aol.com wrote:
>Excerpt of Jim Kunstler's comments regarding Las Vegas (which actually
>apply to many Southwestern cities):
>
> If anything, the destiny of Las Vegas is to dry up and blow away,
> sooner rather than later. Here's why:
>
> -- The global oil production peak will put an end to cheap oil and
> economies that depend on it. That means the end of things like casual
> visitors motoring in from Southern California and Phoenix. It means the
> evaporation of hallucinated value in abstract financial rackets like
> derivative-based hedge funds. It means far less disposable wealth among
> the population in general, and for many baby boomers it probably means
> the end of hope that their retirement will be funded by pensions and
> stock options. It means the end to cheap air conditioning and bargain
> hotel rates. It means bankrupt airlines.
>
> -- The water situation in Las Vegas is dire. The city has absolutely
> no capacity left for expansion under any circumstances. What's more, Lake
> Mead, the impoundment behind Hoover Dam, is down to historically low
> levels, dropping a foot per week lately, and may soon fall so low that
> the turbine intakes on Hoover Dam no longer operate, meaning goodbye
> electric generating capacity. The Colorado River's flow in 2004 was 70
> percent below average, and the region was gripped by a years-long
> drought. Climatologists agree, in fact, that the desert southwest has
> actually been enjoying two comparatively wet centuries and is now
> reverting to a drier cycle. Global warming could make it much worse.
>
> -- As industrial agriculture withers, places in America than can't
> grow a substantial amount of their own food will be (in bad shape). (In
> place of Jim's favorite verb).
>
> The last thing that the American future will be about is mega-cities
> in the desert supported by lifelines of cheap oil, cheap electricity,
> cheap air conditioning, cheap diverted water, and cheap long-range
> transportation and the pissing away of financial resources for
> "excitement." Of course, when your national mythology is based on the
> idea that it is possible to get something for nothing, you'll believe anything.
>
>The businessmen in Las Vegas and the Times business reporters are like the
>clueless westerners gamboling on the beach in Phuket with a tidal wave
>silently bearing down on them. Only in this case the wave is a permanent
>global energy crisis. When the wave lands in Las Vegas, the excitement
>will be over.
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But all this assumes that there will be no supplement or alternative to
oil as the primary energy source (which, in Vegas' case, may actually be
hydro). If you also throw in LA (dependent upon that very same Colorado
water), Phoenix and Tucson, you have what, some 15 million or so folks
that need energy and since we're not about to migrate 15 million folks,
somehow, some way they will get that energy. We may not know exactly how
right now but, trust me, they will get it. Actually, as you hint, water,
not oil, may be their biggest problem. But at some point desalinization
and pumping begins to make economic sense, as it does today in parts of
the Middle East. Look at the CAP project of a couple of decades ago. It's
all economics. Cheap? Maybe not, but whatever it takes it will
happen.<br><br>
Do I agree that building cities in the middle of deserts is idiotic? You
bet. But they're already there and they're not going away.<br><br>
But I've probably sailed Lake Mead for the last time.<br><br>
At 06:51 PM 12/29/2004, WesTexas@aol.com wrote:<br>
<blockquote type=cite class=cite cite=""><font face="arial" size=2>Excerpt
of Jim Kunstler's comments regarding Las Vegas (which actually apply to
many Southwestern cities):<br><br>
</font> If anything, the destiny of Las Vegas is
to dry up and blow away, sooner rather than later. Here's why:<br>
<br>
-- The global oil production peak will put an
end to cheap oil and economies that depend on it. That means the end of
things like casual visitors motoring in from Southern California and
Phoenix. It means the evaporation of hallucinated value in abstract
financial rackets like derivative-based hedge funds. It means far less
disposable wealth among the population in general, and for many baby
boomers it probably means the end of hope that their retirement will be
funded by pensions and stock options. It means the end to cheap air
conditioning and bargain hotel rates. It means bankrupt airlines.<br>
<br>
-- The water situation in Las Vegas is dire. The
city has absolutely no capacity left for expansion under any
circumstances. What's more, Lake Mead, the impoundment behind Hoover Dam,
is down to historically low levels, dropping a foot per week lately, and
may soon fall so low that the turbine intakes on Hoover Dam no longer
operate, meaning goodbye electric generating capacity. The Colorado
River's flow in 2004 was 70 percent below average, and the region was
gripped by a years-long drought. Climatologists agree, in fact, that the
desert southwest has actually been enjoying two comparatively wet
centuries and is now reverting to a drier cycle. Global warming could
make it much worse.<br>
<br>
-- As industrial agriculture withers, places in
America than can't grow a substantial amount of their own food will be
(in bad shape). (In place of Jim's favorite verb).
<br>
<br>
The last thing that the American future will be
about is mega-cities in the desert supported by lifelines of cheap oil,
cheap electricity, cheap air conditioning, cheap diverted water, and
cheap long-range transportation and the pissing away of financial
resources for "excitement." Of course, when your national
mythology is based on the idea that it is possible to get something for
nothing, you'll believe anything.<br>
<br>
The businessmen in Las Vegas and the<i> Times</i> business reporters are
like the clueless westerners gamboling on the beach in Phuket with a
tidal wave silently bearing down on them. Only in this case the wave is a
permanent global energy crisis. When the wave lands in Las Vegas, the
excitement will be over.<font face="arial"> </font></blockquote></body>
<br>
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