[Culturechat] What does Jim Kunstler know?
WesTexas@aol.com
WesTexas@aol.com
Wed, 29 Dec 2004 18:16:39 EST
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In a message dated 12/29/04 4:18:24 PM, jclancy@billtrak.com writes:
> Though hardly an expert on any of this, I look to hydrogen
> supplies as one of the big saviors long-term but this is an infrastructure
> problem more than a scientific one.
>=20
The fact is that hydrogen is, and always will be, a form of energy storage=20
and not an energy source. Fuel cells are nothing but high tech batteries.=
=20
To say that hydrogen will save us is like saying that Energizer batteries wi=
ll=20
save us. Currently, it takes five BTU's to obtain a volume of hydrogen tha=
t=20
will produce one BTU. =20
In order to believe that "everything is fine," one has to believe that net=20
energy production will increase indefinitely, that food production will incr=
ease=20
indefinitely and that economic growth will increase indefinitely. My=20
position is that these are false assumptions, but time will tell who is righ=
t. In=20
the meantime, I think that the actions of some key world governments speak=20
much louder than words. =20
Financial columnist Scott Burns, in his 12/27/04 column (available at=20
www.dallasnews.com), had an interesting observation (which I agree with):=
=A0 "Like it=20
or not, the British Thermal Unit (BTU) is the new dollar.=A0 It is the 'curr=
ency'=20
every nation must have."=A0
With this assumption in mind--that BTU's are the new currency--consider the=20
actions of three key governments: =20
The U.S. is, in effect, seizing control of Middle Eastern oil fields.
China is very aggressively buying oil and gas reserves wherever they can,=20
e.g., Canada, and entering into joint venture arrangements elsewhere, e.g.,=20
Venezuela and Iran.=A0=A0 There is also a possibility of a conflict between=20=
China and=20
Japan regarding reserves in the South China Sea.=A0
Russia is renationalizing oil companies, e.g., Yukos.=A0
The common denominator here is that all three governments are aggressively=20
working to increase their control of energy resources.=A0 What do these thre=
e=20
governments know that most people don't know?
Irv and I are Texas oilmen with a combined 70+ years of experience between=20
us. We have spent a fair amount of time studying the Peak Oil issue, and w=
e=20
have reached very similar conclusions. If you really want to judge Jim=20
Kunstler's position, I would again suggest that you buy a copy of End of Sub=
urbia. =20
You can order it from the Post Carbon Institute. =20
Having said that, I have found that Jerry's response is fairly typical. =20
People don't want to hear that the party is ending, but the suburban way of=20=
life=20
in America is soon going to become unsustainable--whether we like monstrous=20
SUV's, gargantuan low density suburban homes and Wal-Marts or not. =20
J. Brown
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<HTML><FONT FACE=3Darial,helvetica><HTML><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Gen=
eva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"2">In a message dated 12/29/04 4:18:24 PM,=
jclancy@billtrak.com writes:<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE CITE STYLE=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px;=20=
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px" TYPE=3D"CITE"></FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#0=
00000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"2">Though hardly an expe=
rt on any of this, I look to hydrogen<BR>
supplies as one of the big saviors long-term but this is an infrastructure<B=
R>
problem more than a scientific one.</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Ge=
neva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"2"><BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE></FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSE=
RIF" SIZE=3D"2"><BR>
The fact is that hydrogen is, and always will be, a form of energy storage a=
nd not an energy source. Fuel cells are nothing but high tech b=
atteries. To say that hydrogen will save us is like saying that Energ=
izer batteries will save us. Currently, it takes five BTU's to obtain=
a volume of hydrogen that will produce one BTU. <BR>
<BR>
In order to believe that "everything is fine," one has to believe that net e=
nergy production will increase indefinitely, that food production will incre=
ase indefinitely and that economic growth will increase indefinitely. &=
nbsp; My position is that these are false assumptions, but time will tell w=
ho is right. In the meantime, I think that the actions of some key wo=
rld governments speak much louder than words. <BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"=
2">Financial columnist Scott Burns, in his 12/27/04 column (available at www=
.dallasnews.com),</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SA=
NSSERIF" SIZE=3D"2"> had an interesting observation (which I agree with):=
=A0 "Like it or not, the British Thermal Unit (BTU) is the new dollar.=A0 It=
is the 'currency' every nation must have."=A0<BR>
<BR>
With this assumption in mind--that BTU's are the new currency--consider the=20=
actions of three key governments: <BR>
<BR>
The U.S. is, in effect, seizing control of Middle Eastern oil fields.<BR>
<BR>
China is very aggressively buying oil and gas reserves wherever they can, e.=
g., Canada, and entering into joint venture arrangements elsewhere, e.g., Ve=
nezuela and Iran.=A0=A0 There is also a possibility of a conflict between Ch=
ina and Japan regarding reserves in the South China Sea.=A0<BR>
<BR>
Russia is renationalizing oil companies, e.g., Yukos.=A0<BR>
<BR>
The common denominator here is that all three governments are aggressively w=
orking to increase their control of energy resources.=A0 What do these three=
governments know that most people don't know?<BR>
<BR>
Irv and I are Texas oilmen with a combined 70+ years of experience between u=
s. We have spent a fair amount of time studying the Peak Oil issue, a=
nd we have reached very similar conclusions. If you reall=
y want to judge Jim Kunstler's position, I would again suggest that you buy=20=
a copy of End of Suburbia. You can order it from the Post Carbon Inst=
itute. <BR>
<BR>
Having said that, I have found that Jerry's response is fairly typical. =
; People don't want to hear that the party is ending, but the suburban way=20=
of life in America is soon going to become unsustainable--whether we like mo=
nstrous SUV's, gargantuan low density suburban homes and Wal-Marts or not.&n=
bsp; <BR>
<BR>
J. Brown<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"=
2"><BR>
<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"=
2"><BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"=
2"></FONT></HTML>
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