[Culturechat] What does Jim Kunstler know--that most Americans don't know?
WesTexas@aol.com
WesTexas@aol.com
Fri, 24 Dec 2004 12:47:33 EST
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In a message dated 12/23/04 7:59:16 PM, bob@gemut.com writes:
> The automobile is here to stay, it's just going to have a different power
> source.
>
This is a variation on the argument that economists make, i.e., that capital
creates energy. The problem with this is the Second Law of Thermodynamics,
also known as Entropy. For example, most of the basic components of a car
can be recycled, but the gasoline that was used to power the car cannot be
recycled--the potential energy in the gasoline was dispersed as heat and mechanical
energy. Entropy, the tendency for energy to go from more concentrated
areas to less concentrated areas, increases with time. It's a one way street.
There are no energy factories. Energy has to be found, mined or gathered.
It cannot be created. For example, today it takes the energy equivalent of
five gallons of gasoline to obtain a volume of hydrogen that is the energy
equivalent of one gallon of gasoline.
>From a human life span point of view, the supply of fossil fuels on earth is
fixed. Fossil fuels--coal, oil and natural gas--are stored solar energy.
In a way, our fossil fuel supply is a large battery that is not being
recharged. Therefore, no quantity of capital will EVER increase the amount of fossil
fuel on this planet.
So, where does that leave the U.S. in a post Peak Oil world?
Following are some total energy consumption numbers (from all energy
sources), expressed in Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) per person, for selected areas
(from Simmons & Company, from a couple of years ago):
*Growing Fast
U.S. 64.3 BOE/capita
Europe 50.9
Japan 32.8
China* 5.3
India* 2.5
In the U.S., we use the energy equivalent of about 7.4 gallons of oil per day
per person. The worlds is consuming oil at about four times the rate that
we are finding it. Every two years, the world uses an amount of oil equal to
all of the oil that Texas has produced to date. In my opinion, world oil
production will probably peak next year, but certainly no later than 2010. Past
Peak Oil, net available energy will decline until the rate of growth of
alternative energy is equal to the rate of decline of conventional energy.
So, where does that leave the U.S.? Jim Kunstler calls it a "CF." See his
website for more details. We are the biggest energy users in the world, any
way you want to measure it. So, we are the most exposed to falling net
available energy. This is why our current energy intensive lifestyle is doomed.
The cultural point that Jim Kunstler is making is that beyond the economic
disaster that suburbs represent, the suburbs are deadening to the soul. They
are neither country nor city. Suburbs are just sterile trashy dormitories.
Why can't we have culturally rich walkable communities--like a few in the
U.S.--and like many in Europe?
In any case, whether you like SUV's or not, things are going to change.
Two lifestyles are going to make sense: (1) densely populated, walkable
urban areas and (2) small towns in agricultural areas. The last thing you want
to own is a 5,000 square foot McMansion in a suburban area.
My current recommendation to friends and family is that they start thinking
hard about getting into organic farming and gardening.
J. Brown
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<HTML><FONT FACE=3Darial,helvetica><HTML><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Gen=
eva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"2">In a message dated 12/23/04 7:59:16 PM,=
bob@gemut.com writes:<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE CITE STYLE=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px;=20=
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px" TYPE=3D"CITE"></FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#0=
00000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" SIZE=3D"2">The automobile is her=
e to stay, it's just going to have a different power source.<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE></FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSE=
RIF" SIZE=3D"2"><BR>
This is a variation on the argument that economists make, i.e., that capital=
creates energy. The problem with this is the Second Law of The=
rmodynamics, also known as Entropy. For example, most of the basic co=
mponents of a car can be recycled, but the gasoline that was used to power t=
he car cannot be recycled--the potential energy in the gasoline was disperse=
d as heat and mechanical energy. Entropy, the tendency for ener=
gy to go from more concentrated areas to less concentrated areas, increases=20=
with time. It's a one way street. There are no energy fa=
ctories. Energy has to be found, mined or gathered. It cannot=20=
be created. For example, today it takes the energy equivalent o=
f five gallons of gasoline to obtain a volume of hydrogen that is the energy=
equivalent of one gallon of gasoline. <BR>
<BR>
>From a human life span point of view, the supply of fossil fuels on earth is=
fixed. Fossil fuels--coal, oil and natural gas--are stored solar ene=
rgy. In a way, our fossil fuel supply is a large battery that is not=20=
being recharged. Therefore, no quantity of capital will EVER in=
crease the amount of fossil fuel on this planet. <BR>
<BR>
So, where does that leave the U.S. in a post Peak Oil world? <BR>
<BR>
Following are some total energy consumption numbers (from all energy sources=
), expressed in Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) per person, for selected are=
as (from Simmons & Company, from a couple of years ago):<BR>
<BR>
*Growing Fast<BR>
<BR>
U.S. 64=
.3 BOE/capita &=
nbsp; <BR>
<BR>
Europe 50.9<BR>
<BR>
Japan 32.8<BR>
<BR>
China* 5.3 <BR>
<BR>
India* 2.5<BR>
<BR>
In the U.S., we use the energy equivalent of about 7.4 gallons of oil per da=
y per person. The worlds is consuming oil at about four times the rat=
e that we are finding it. Every two years, the world uses an amount o=
f oil equal to all of the oil that Texas has produced to date. In my=20=
opinion, world oil production will probably peak next year, but certainly no=
later than 2010. Past Peak Oil, net available energy will decline un=
til the rate of growth of alternative energy is equal to the rate of decline=
of conventional energy. <BR>
<BR>
So, where does that leave the U.S.? Jim Kunstler calls it a "CF."&nbs=
p; See his website for more details. We are the biggest energy users=
in the world, any way you want to measure it. So, we are the most ex=
posed to falling net available energy. This is why our current=20=
energy intensive lifestyle is doomed.<BR>
<BR>
The cultural point that Jim Kunstler is making is that beyond the economic d=
isaster that suburbs represent, the suburbs are deadening to the soul. =
They are neither country nor city. Suburbs are just sterile t=
rashy dormitories. Why can't we have culturally rich walkable c=
ommunities--like a few in the U.S.--and like many in Europe? <BR>
<BR>
In any case, whether you like SUV's or not, things are going to change. =
; Two lifestyles are going to make sense: (1) densely p=
opulated, walkable urban areas and (2) small towns in agricultural ar=
eas. The last thing you want to own is a 5,000 square foot McMansion=20=
in a suburban area.<BR>
<BR>
My current recommendation to friends and family is that they start thinking=20=
hard about getting into organic farming and gardening.<BR>
<BR>
J. Brown</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" FACE=3D"Geneva" FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF"=20=
SIZE=3D"2"></FONT></HTML>
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